A Vox reader Nneoma Ngene asks: Possibly it’s as a result of I’m a brand new grad, graduating with my bachelor’s in Might yippee! Nevertheless it appears everyone seems to be tremendous pessimistic concerning the job market today. Has it been tougher to get a job for folks lately, or am I simply lastly shedding my childhood naïveté and being compelled to get up to the way in which the job market has at all times been?
Congratulations in your commencement! That’s a real achievement value celebrating, even amid job market issues.
The brief reply to your query is that, sadly, the financial knowledge does affirm what you’re sensing: The job market actually is tougher for brand spanking new graduates proper now, and it’s not simply your childhood optimism fading away.
You and your friends have confronted uniquely robust circumstances. You began faculty throughout a pandemic, and now you’re getting into a job market that’s shifting beneath your toes in methods that may really feel discouraging, despite the fact that they’re pushed by a lot bigger financial and technological forces.
This isn’t the primary time graduates have confronted a tough transition. The Nice Recession in 2008 led to hiring freezes and layoffs that blocked new employees from touchdown entry-level jobs. The labor market took time to heal after unemployment peaked in 2009, however improved steadily till the pandemic disrupted that progress.
What new grads are going through
Numbers from the primary quarter of 2025 from the New York Federal Reserve present that the unemployment fee for current faculty graduates reached 5.8 p.c, up from 4.8 p.c in January.
Firms have additionally pulled again on hiring. Final fall, employers anticipated to extend college-graduate hiring by 7.3 p.c, in keeping with a survey led by the Nationwide Affiliation of Faculties and Employers. Now they’re projecting simply a 0.6 p.c enhance, with about 11 p.c of firms planning to rent fewer new grads than earlier than.
A number of various factors are working collectively to create this difficult setting.
First, the brand new tariffs have created financial uncertainty. The inventory market responded accordingly, with the S&P 500 down about 6.5 p.c since inauguration day as of this writing. Because of this, companies are hesitant to broaden their workforce.
The elephant within the room right here — that Nice Recession grads didn’t need to take care of — is synthetic intelligence. There’s proof that AI is perhaps affecting entry-level alternatives. The duties sometimes carried out by new faculty graduates — synthesizing info, producing studies — align with what generative AI can now typically deal with.
And whereas the unemployment fee for current grads is 5.8 p.c, the general unemployment fee is 4.2 p.c — a file hole. This implies that whereas firms usually are not laying employees off due to AI en masse, they might be utilizing AI to do jobs that might in any other case have gone to new grads.
It’s understandably irritating if you’ve executed every part “proper” — earned your diploma and ready for the job market — solely to face situations which are tougher than lately.
The excellent news concerning the job market
Regardless of these challenges, some sectors are nonetheless actively hiring.
Well being care accounts for 34 p.c of whole payroll positive factors this 12 months. Engineering positions, particularly electronics engineering, supply alternatives with excessive beginning salaries (projected at $78,731). Particular schooling roles are plentiful, and whereas federal hiring has contracted, state and native governments stay sturdy for entry-level hiring. Gross sales constantly ranks among the many prime fields for brand spanking new faculty graduates.
On the tariffs entrance, the scenario appears to be turning a nook now, as inventory markets digest information of President Donald Trump’s current take care of China. This deal may assist forestall a full recession and enhance the outlet for college-graduate hiring.
The fact is that your job search may take longer than you hoped. Over 80 p.c of seniors informed ZipRecruiter in March that they count on to begin working inside three months of graduating, however in actuality, solely about 77 p.c from current graduating lessons began that rapidly. If it takes even longer for you or your friends, that’s not a private failure — it’s merely a mirrored image of the market you’re getting into.
Your query requested whether or not that is simply “the way in which the job market has at all times been.” The reality is that job markets fluctuate, and the timing of your commencement coincides with a very difficult interval. However earlier generations have confronted comparable challenges and located their manner by means of, and yours will too.
This story was initially printed in The Spotlight, Vox’s member-exclusive journal. To get early entry to member-exclusive tales each month, be part of the Vox Membership program at this time.
