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Wednesday, June 18, 2025

What does a post-Assad Syria imply for tens of millions of Syrian refugees?


Hundreds of thousands of Syrians around the globe are celebrating the sudden fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime dictatorship and the tip of 13 years of civil conflict.

The conflict got here to a speedy, gorgeous finish earlier this month, after Syrian insurgent forces swept by means of the nation and into its capital of Damascus after lower than two weeks of preventing.

Now, these Syrian refugees displaced by years of battle are confronted with a tough choice: whether or not to return residence to a Syria that’s free however in ruins or to stay of their host international locations.

For a lot of, the choice to repatriate is determined by the place they now reside. Hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees reside in international locations bordering Syria — Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan — and endure precarious circumstances in crowded and destitute refugee camps. Others are internally displaced inside Syria.

Effectively greater than one million others have been taken in by European international locations, the UK, america, and Canada, and will need to wait and see what comes subsequent. They could be desirous to reestablish ties with household and mates, however hesitant to uproot their households, together with kids who might don’t have any reminiscence of life in Syria.

Some international locations aren’t ready for refugees to determine for themselves, nonetheless, or for Syria to rebuild. Austria, which is residence to about 100,000 Syrian migrants, has already introduced deportation plans. Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Finland, Eire, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and the UK have suspended asylum purposes from Syrians, and France is contemplating comparable motion.

However Syria’s future is way from sure. The nation’s financial system is in tatters, inflation is excessive, and public infrastructure has been decimated. Fundamental facilities like clear water, electrical energy, and housing are tough to search out. The coalition of insurgent teams that overthrew the Assad regime is led by an Islamist militant group, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has ties to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. HTS is designated by the US and the UN as a terror group, however has additionally damaged with al-Qaeda and tried to determine itself as a respectable actor in Syria.

As we speak, Defined host Noel King spoke in regards to the plight of Syrian refugees with Amany Qaddour. She directs the humanitarian nongovernmental group Syria Aid & Growth and is an affiliate college member on the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg College of Public Well being.

Beneath is an excerpt of their dialog, edited for size and readability. There’s far more within the full podcast, so take heed to As we speak, Defined wherever you get your podcasts, together with Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and Spotify.

You might be Syrian American. Do I’ve that proper? Are you able to simply inform me about your ties to Syria?

My heritage is Syrian. My dad and mom are Syrian, however I grew up within the US my entire life. I grew up within the Midwest.

And the place are we reaching you, Amany?

I’m in Gaziantep, Turkey. So for these unfamiliar, it’s within the southeast of Turkey, one of many cities that was the epicenter of the earthquakes that hit final 12 months.

I need to get a way of the size of motion that occurred because of Syria’s decade-plus-long civil conflict. There have been individuals who left the nation. There have been individuals who moved round contained in the nation. What are we speaking about by way of numbers and the place did individuals have a tendency to finish up?

Let’s discuss outflow first. It is a nation that has in all probability 6 million to 7 million refugees exterior of the nation, one of many highest for these which were following Syria for the previous decade-plus. This is among the highest numbers of refugees internationally, now in all probability carefully tied with Afghanistan and Ukraine. However for fairly a while it was Syria. A variety of these refugees ended up in surrounding international locations. After which the remainder ended up in lots of, many locations: Europe, the UK, the US, Canada. However I might say the majority of refugee-hosting international locations for Syrians have been the encircling ones, together with Turkey, the place I reside proper now. After which by way of influx inside the nation, throughout the assorted governorates, the vast majority of displaced communities have been within the northwest. This is among the highest displaced populations internationally proper now.

Throughout the nation, it’s about 6 or so million displacements. And within the northwest, it’s housed about 4 million. These 4 million have come from different elements of the northwest because of aerial assaults to civilian infrastructure, hospitals, clinics, colleges, marketplaces — for people who have adopted Syria’s catastrophic inflection factors, chemical weapons assaults, seizures on numerous cities — so lots of these individuals have come from Idlib and Aleppo, basically simply transferring from place to position relying on the place there have been assaults on civilians. The remaining have come from among the different governorates — Damascus, Homs, Hama. A variety of these individuals might have been fleeing due to how harmful it was to reside in a few of these different governorates. Some had been fleeing pressured navy conscription, significantly younger males of navy age. So actually, a combination of causes. However the northwest particularly, I might say, is de facto housing the vast majority of the displaced.

For these Syrians who had been pressured to flee exterior of Syria, what did it imply for the international locations the place they ended up?

It’s actually diverse. This has been a microcosm of so many different crises. Over the previous 13 years, there’s been lots of actually touching solidarity with the Syrian individuals. I believe individuals have been so tremendously beneficiant in internet hosting Syrians in several international locations. However then there have additionally been waves of anti-refugee sentiment, the place lots of international locations are additionally trying inward now at their very own financial circumstances, their very own workforce, their very own well being programs, in the event that they’re in a position to really subsidize these well being companies for their very own populations. A variety of this additionally modified post-Covid, the place international locations additionally had critical financial points, not simply creating international locations, not simply in fragile settings, but additionally in additional developed international locations just like the US and lots of international locations in Europe as nicely.

So a mixture of reactions, a few of them superb, a few of them not so good. What are you listening to from Syrians who had been displaced exterior of the nation now that Bashar al-Assad is gone? Do they need to go residence?

I believe sure, however there’s a caveat. I believe, with out getting emotional about this, you possibly can really feel the hope and you may see the resilience of the Syrian individuals internationally proper now in scenes of individuals celebrating in nearly each nation and actual solidarity. I believe it is a second in historical past, it is a second in time for individuals and earlier than discussing what’s subsequent, let’s let Syrians have this second. Let’s allow them to have a good time, rejoice. Really feel the enjoyment. Really feel the ache. Really feel the struggling. Really feel the loss and the household separation, the detainment, the persecutions. It is a bittersweet second for lots of people. And I believe it’s actually vital to allow them to course of all of this.

Then again, lots of Syrians at the moment are both eager to return or, at a minimal, simply get permission to enter the nation, to reunite with dad and mom that they haven’t seen for ten years, younger women and men that needed to depart the nation, separate from their households, out of security or just due to how a lot financial deterioration there was. I’m very cautious about what this implies when many say they need to return. Is the time essentially now? No. Is there a agency timeline? I additionally don’t know. What I might say, particularly to host international locations is, this isn’t a second to use asylum insurance policies. This isn’t a second to kind of weaponize this vital time limit and instantly begin discussing returns, particularly in the event that they’re not this trifecta: voluntary, secure, and dignified for individuals.

This has been a contentious challenge in some European international locations. Have any European international locations come out since Assad was pressured out and mentioned, we really plan to do issues otherwise now?

So it’s been a dizzying few days. I imagine Austria has. I’m cautious to say names of different international locations, however even previous to this second in time, a number of international locations have been taking a look at their migration insurance policies. Germany has been taking a look at its migration insurance policies. Holland has been trying. Denmark is de facto attempting to know what are the circumstances in Syria in order that they’ll additionally reframe or recalibrate their very own migration insurance policies and decide, is it secure for returns and might Syrians be despatched again now?

If individuals had been to decide on to return, what are they going again to? What does Syria appear like now?

That’s actually exhausting. Lots of people, it’s simply residence for them. It’s simply, “I’m going again residence. I’m going again to mother and pop or my brothers and sisters that had been 5 years outdated earlier than, and now they’re youngsters.” So lots of my colleagues, my workforce are going again proper now and reuniting with household. And it’s so touching. I believe lots of people had misplaced hope. There was a transparent disillusionment, I might say, with the worldwide system. However I do fear that what individuals are going again to now, the nation wants reconstruction. It wants improvement. It’s been destroyed. So there actually isn’t, in sure areas, a lot to return to.

That’s not the case for all elements of Syria. Inflation has hit the nation exhausting. And that is additionally located inside wider regional instability and likewise main inflation charges within the area. So typically, financial insecurity in Syria and out of doors, which additionally provides to among the push-pull components for some Syrians which have struggled additionally exterior of the nation, particularly in neighboring international locations, unable to afford fundamental companies, fundamental facilities. You might have decimated infrastructure. So public infrastructure, colleges, and only a few job prospects. And throughout the well being system — I’m a public well being practitioner, so this has been my space of focus for a lot of, a few years now — the hospital and well being care infrastructure that’s nearly utterly collapsed in sure areas.

We talked to a younger man named Omar Alshogre earlier within the present who’s 29 years outdated. He mentioned his hometown is probably the most lovely place on the planet. However he’s been in Europe since he was about 19 or 20. He has a complete life there. And so that is going to be a really, very exhausting name for somebody like this younger man. I think about you’re going to listen to these forms of tales time and again and once more over the approaching months and years.

Yeah, undoubtedly. I believe lots of people now are grappling with this, particularly lots of my colleagues and mates who’ve had kids which were born in different international locations now. And there’s this id, the place we hear there’s one thing known as Syria that we’re initially from there. What that truly means, they could be too younger to course of that. They could really feel they’re Jordanian, they could really feel they’re Turkish, they could really feel they’re British. So actually fascinated about the id of not solely kids that had been born exterior of the nation now and that at the moment are teenagers or tweens, but additionally a few of these folks that left proper on the finish of college or highschool. And the vast majority of their early life now have been lived exterior of the nation.

It’s an enormous choice to maneuver again at this time limit, particularly when there aren’t these facilities, there aren’t these companies. There’s additionally a complete era that has not been in a position to entry schooling within the nation. The place can you safe your individual livelihood, your individual schooling? Is that going to be instantly in Syria tomorrow? Completely not. It’s going to take time. It’s a tricky choice then to sort of uproot them yet again, particularly when among the ones in Jordan and Lebanon, they’re on their fourth or fifth or sixth displacement. They’ve began their lives over a number of occasions. So some additionally simply need stability in any kind. And I believe it’s simply there’s solely a lot an individual can deal with.

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