Within the final decade, the UK has had 4 considerably totally different units of know-how priorities, and a brief, however disruptive, interval, the place such prioritisation was opposed on precept. This 3500 phrase piece appears at this historical past of instability in UK innovation coverage, and suggests some rules of consistency and readability which could give us some extra stability within the decade to come back. A PDF model could be downloaded right here.
Introduction
The issue of coverage churn has been recognized in various coverage areas as a barrier to productiveness progress within the UK, and science and innovation coverage isn’t any exception to this. The UK can’t do all the pieces – it represents lower than 3% of the world’s R&D sources, so it must specialise. However latest governments haven’t discovered it straightforward to resolve the place the UK ought to put its focus, after which keep on with these choices.
In 2012 this the then Science Minister, David Willetts, launched an initiative which recognized 8 precedence applied sciences – the “Eight Nice Applied sciences”. Willetts mirrored on the destiny of this initiative in a very attention-grabbing paper printed final yr. Briefly, whereas there was consensus on the necessity for the UK to focus (excluding one quick interval), the areas of focus have been topic to frequent change.
Substantial modifications in course for know-how coverage have occurred even if we’ve had a single political celebration in energy since 2010, with explicit instability since 2015, within the interval of Conservative majority authorities. Since 2012, the typical life-span of an innovation coverage has been about 2.5 years. Beneath the headline modifications, it’s true that there have been some continuities. However given the lengthy time-scales wanted to determine analysis programmes and to hold them by to their outcomes, this instability makes it totally different to implement any form of coherent technique.
Shifting Priorities: from “Eight Nice Applied sciences”, by “Seven Expertise Households”, to “5 Crucial Applied sciences”
Desk 1 summarises the varied precedence applied sciences recognized in authorities coverage since 2012, grouped in a approach which finest brings out the continuities (click on to enlarge).
The “Eight Nice Applied sciences” had been launched in 2012 in a speech to the Royal Society by the then Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne; a paper by David Willetts expanded on the rationale for the alternatives . The 2014 Science and Innovation Coverage endorsed the “Eight Nice Applied sciences”, with the addition of quantum know-how, which, following an intensive lobbying train, had been added to the checklist within the 2013 Autumn Assertion.
2015 introduced a majority Conservative authorities, however continuity within the places of work of Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer didn’t translate into continuity in innovation coverage. The brand new Secretary of State within the Division of Enterprise, Innovation and Abilities was Sajid Javid, who dropped at the submit a Thatcherite mistrust of something that smacked of commercial technique. The principle sufferer of this world-view was the innovation company Innovate UK, which was subjected to important cut-backs, inflicting lasting harm.
This interlude didn’t final very lengthy – after the Brexit referendum, David Cameron’s resignation and the premiership of Theresa Could, there was an elevated urge for food for intervention within the financial system, coupled with a rising consciousness and acknowledgement of the UK’s productiveness drawback. Greg Clark (a former Science Minister) took over at a renamed and expanded Division of Enterprise, Vitality and Industrial Technique.
A White Paper outlining a “trendy industrial technique” was printed in 2017. Though it nodded to the “Eight Nice Applied sciences”, the main focus shifted to 4 “missions”. Cash had already been put aside within the 2016 Autumn Assertion for an “Industrial Technique Problem Fund” which might assist R&D in assist of the priorities that emerged from the Industrial Technique.
2019 noticed one other change of Prime Minister – and one other election, which introduced one other Conservative authorities, with a a lot larger majority, and a somewhat interventionist manifesto that promised substantial will increase in science funding, together with a brand new company modelled on the USA’s ARPA, and a promise to “focus our efforts on areas the place the UK can generate a commanding lead within the industries of the longer term – life sciences, clear vitality, house, design, computing, robotics and synthetic intelligence.”
However the “trendy industrial technique” didn’t survive lengthy into the brand new administration. The brand new Secretary of State was Kwasi Kwarteng, from the wing of the celebration with an ideological aversion to industrial technique. In 2021, the economic technique was outdated by a Treasury doc, the Plan for Progress, which, whereas inserting sturdy emphasis on the significance of innovation, took a way more sector and know-how agnostic method to its assist. The Plan for Progress was supported by a brand new Innovation Technique, printed later in 2021. This did determine a brand new set of precedence applied sciences – “Seven Expertise Households”.
2022 was the yr of three Prime Ministers. Liz Truss’s hard-line free market place was actually unfriendly to the idea of commercial technique, however in her 44 day tenure as Prime Minister there was not sufficient time to make any important modifications in course to innovation coverage.
Rishi Sunak’s Premiership introduced one other important growth, within the type of a equipment of presidency change reflecting the brand new Prime Minister’s enthusiasm for know-how. A brand new division – the Division for Innovation, Science and Expertise – meant that there was now a cupboard stage Secretary of State centered on science. One other important evolution within the profile of science and know-how in authorities was the rising prominence of nationwide safety as a driver of science coverage.
This had begun within the 2021 Built-in Evaluate , which was an try and set a single imaginative and prescient for the UK’s place on the planet, protecting safety, defence, growth and international coverage. This elevated “Sustaining strategic benefit by science and know-how” as one among 4 overarching rules. The disruptions to worldwide provide chains throughout the covid pandemic, and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the following massive scale European land conflict, raised the difficulty of nationwide safety even increased up the political agenda.
A brand new division, and a modified set of priorities, produced a brand new 2023 technique – the Science & Expertise Framework – taking a methods method to UK science & know-how . This included a brand new set of know-how priorities – the “5 essential applied sciences”.
Thus in a single decade, we’ve had 4 considerably totally different units of know-how priorities, and a brief, however disruptive, interval, the place such prioritisation was opposed on precept.
Continuities and discontinuities
There are some continuities in substance in these know-how priorities. Quantum know-how appeared round 2013 as an addendum to the “Eight Nice Applied sciences”, and survives into the present “5 Crucial Applied sciences”. Problems with nationwide safety are an enormous driver right here, as they’re for a lot bigger scale programmes within the USA and China.
In a few different areas, title modifications conceal substantial continuity. What was referred to as artificial biology in 2012 is now encompassed within the area of engineering biology. Synthetic Intelligence has come to excessive public prominence immediately, however it’s a pure evolution of what was once referred to as huge knowledge, pushed by technical advances in machine studying, extra laptop energy, and larger knowledge units.
Priorities in 2017 had been outlined as Grand Challenges, not Applied sciences. The language of challenges is taken up within the 2021 Innovation Technique, which proposes a set of Innovation Missions, distinct from the precedence know-how households, to handle main societal challenges, in areas akin to local weather change, public well being, and intractable illnesses. The 2023 Science and Expertise Framework, nevertheless, describes investments in three of the 5 Crucial Applied sciences, engineering biology, synthetic intelligence, and quantum applied sciences, as “know-how missions”, which appears to make use of the time period in a considerably totally different sense. There’s room for extra readability about what is supposed by a grand problem, a mission, or a know-how, which I’ll return to beneath.
One other distinction that’s not all the time clear is between applied sciences and trade sectors. Each the Coalition and the Could governments had industrial methods that explicitly singled out explicit sectors for assist, together with by assist for innovation. These are listed in desk 2. However it’s controversial that at the least two of the Eight Nice Applied sciences – agritech, and house & satellites – could be higher regarded as trade sectors somewhat than applied sciences.
Desk 2 – industrial technique sectors, as outlined by the Coalition, and the Could authorities.
The sector method did underpin main utilized public/non-public R&D programmes (such because the Aerospace Expertise Institute, and the Superior Propulsion Centre), and new R&D establishments, such because the Offshore Renewable Catapult Centre, designed to assist particular trade sectors. In the meantime, below the banner of Life Sciences, there’s continued express assist from the pharmaceutical and biotech trade, although right here there’s a lack of readability about whether or not the first objective is to advertise the well being of residents by innovation assist to the well being and social care system, or to assist pharma and biotech as excessive worth, exporting, industrial sectors.
However two of the 2023 “5 essential applied sciences” – semiconductors and future telecoms – are considerably new. Once more, these look extra like industrial sectors than applied sciences, and whereas nobody can doubt their strategic significance within the international financial system it isn’t apparent that the UK has a very sturdy comparative benefit in them, both within the dimension of the prevailing enterprise base or the size of the UK market (see my earlier dialogue of the background to a UK Semiconductor Technique).
The story of the final ten years, then, is an absence of consistency, not simply within the priorities themselves, however within the conceptual foundation for making the prioritisation – whether or not challenges or missions, trade sectors, or applied sciences.
From technique to implementation
How does one flip from technique to implementation: given a set of precedence sectors, what must occur to show these into analysis programmes, after which translate that analysis into business outcomes? An apparent level that nonetheless wants stressing, is that this course of has lengthy lead instances, and this isn’t appropriate with innovation methods which have a mean lifetime of two.5 years.
To cite the latest Willetts evaluation of the enterprise case course of for scientific programmes: “One senior official estimated the time from an unique concept, arising in Analysis Councils, to execution of a programme at over two and a half years with 13 particular approvals required.” It might clearly be fascinating to chop a number of the forms that causes such delays, however it’s putting that the time taken to design and provoke a analysis programme is of the identical order as the typical lifetime of an innovation technique.
One knowledge level right here is the destiny of the Industrial Technique Problem Fund. This was introduced within the 2016 Autumn Assertion, anticipating the 2017 Industrial Technique White Paper, and exists to assist translational analysis programmes in assist of that Industrial Technique. As we’ve got seen, this technique was de-emphasised in 2019, and formally scrapped in 2021. But the analysis programmes set as much as assist it are nonetheless going, with cash nonetheless within the finances to be spent in FY 24/25.
In fact, a lot worthwhile analysis will likely be being executed in these programmes, so the cash isn’t wasted; the issue is that such orphan programmes might not have any follow-up, as new programmes on totally different matters are designed to assist the newest technique to emerge from central authorities.
Typically the timescales are such that there isn’t even an opportunity to operationalise one technique earlier than one other one arrives. The foremost public funder of R&D, UKRI, produced a 5 yr technique in March 2022 , which was underpinned by the seven know-how households. To operationalise this technique, UKRI’s constituent analysis councils produced a set of supply plans . These had been printed in September 2022, giving them a run of six months earlier than the arrival of the 2023 Science and Innovation Framework, with its new set of essential applied sciences.
A pure response of funding companies to this instability could be to resolve themselves what finest to do, after which do their finest to retro-fit their ongoing programmes to new authorities methods as they emerge. However this is able to defeat the purpose of creating a technique within the first place.
The subsequent ten years
How can we do higher over the subsequent decade? We have to deal with consistency and readability.
Consistency means having one technique that we keep on with. If we’ve got this, traders can believe within the UK, analysis establishments could make knowledgeable choices about their very own investments, and particular person researchers can plan their careers with extra confidence.
In fact, the technique ought to evolve, as surprising developments in science and know-how seem, and because the exterior atmosphere modifications. And it ought to construct on what has gone earlier than – for instance, there’s a lot of worth within the methods method of the 2023 Science and Innovation Framework.
There needs to be readability on the premise for prioritisation. I believe it is very important be a lot clearer about what we imply by Grand Challenges, Missions, Business Sectors, and Applied sciences, and the way they differ from one another. With sharper definitions, we would discover it simpler to determine clear standards for prioritisation.
For me, Grand Challenges set up the situations we’re working below. Some grand challenges would possibly embody:
- Tips on how to transfer our vitality financial system to a zero-carbon foundation by 2050;
- Tips on how to create an inexpensive and humane well being and social care system for an ageing inhabitants;
- Tips on how to restore productiveness progress to the UK financial system and scale back the UK’s regional disparities in financial efficiency;
- Tips on how to maintain the UK secure and safe in an more and more unstable and hostile world.
One would hope that there was a large consensus concerning the scale of those issues, although not everybody will agree, nor will it all the time be apparent, what the easiest way of tackling them is.
Some would possibly refer to those overarching points as missions, utilizing the time period popularised by Mariana Mazzacuto , however I would like to check with a mission as one thing extra particular, with a way of timescale and a particular goal. The 1960’s Moonshot programme is commonly taken as an exemplar, although I believe the extra important mission from that interval was to create the flexibility for the USA to land a half tonne payload wherever on the earth’s floor, with an accuracy of some hundred meters or higher.
The essential function of a mission, then, is that it’s a focused program to attain a strategic objective of the state, that requires each the combination and refinement of current applied sciences and the event of recent ones. Defining and prioritising missions requires working throughout the entire of presidency, to determine the issues that the state must be solved, and which can be tractable sufficient given cheap know-how foresight to be price attempting, and prioritising them.
The important thing questions for a judging missions, then, are, how a lot does the federal government need this to occur, how possible is it given foreseeable know-how, how effectively outfitted is the UK to ship it given its industrial and analysis capabilities, and the way inexpensive is it?
For supporting an trade sector, although, the questions are totally different. Sector assist is a part of an energetic industrial technique, and given the tendency of trade sectors to cluster in house, this has a robust regional dimension. The targets of commercial technique are largely financial – to lift the financial productiveness of a area or the nation – so the standards for choosing sectors needs to be primarily based on their significance to the financial system by way of the fraction of GVA that they provide, and their potential to enhance productiveness.
Up to now industrial technique has usually been pushed by the necessity to create jobs, however our present drawback is productiveness, somewhat than unemployment, so I believe the important thing standards for choosing sectors needs to be their potential to create extra worth by the appliance of innovation and the event of expertise of their workforces.
Along with the financial dimension, there may additionally be a safety side to the selection, if there’s a motive to suppose that sustaining functionality in a selected sector is important to nationwide safety. The 2021 nationalisation of the metal forging firm, Sheffield Forgemasters, to safe the potential to fabricate essential parts for the Royal Navy’s submarine fleet, would have been unthinkable a decade in the past.
Industrial technique might contain assist for innovation, for instance by collaborative programmes of pre-competitive analysis. Nevertheless it must be broader than simply analysis and growth; it could contain creating establishments and programmes for innovation diffusion, the harnessing of public procurement, the event of specialist expertise provision, and at a regional stage, the availability of infrastructure.
Lastly, on what foundation ought to we select a know-how to deal with? By a know-how precedence, we check with an rising functionality arising from new science, that could possibly be adopted by current trade sectors, or may create new, disruptive sectors. Right here an understanding of the worldwide analysis panorama, and the UK’s a part of that, is an important place to begin. Even the latest know-how, to be carried out, is dependent upon current industrial functionality, so the form of the prevailing UK industrial base does must be taken account. Lastly, one shouldn’t underplay the significance of the imaginative and prescient of proficient and pushed people.
This isn’t to say that priorities for the entire of the science and innovation panorama must be outlined by way of challenges, missions, and trade sectors.
A basic framework for expertise, finance, regulation, worldwide collaboration, and infrastructure – as set out by the latest Science & Innovation Framework – must underlie extra particular prioritisation. Sustaining the well being of the fundamental disciplines is vital to supply resilience within the face of the unanticipated, and it is very important be open to new developments and keep agility in responding to them.
The place to begin for a science and innovation technique needs to be to understand that, fairly often, science and innovation shouldn’t be the place to begin. Science coverage isn’t the identical as industrial technique, though it’s usually used as a (less expensive) substitute for it. For challenges and missions, defining the targets should come first; solely then can one resolve what advances in science and know-how are wanted to convey these in attain. Likewise, in a profitable industrial technique, shut engagement with the prevailing capabilities of trade and the calls for of the market are wanted to outline the areas of science and innovation that can assist the event of a selected trade sector.
As I confused in my earlier, complete, survey of the UK Analysis and Improvement panorama, underlying any lasting technique must be a settled, long-term view of what sort of nation the UK aspires to be, what sort of financial system it ought to have, and the way it sees its place on the planet.
